Trading AD to the Celtics or Knicks could result in a better return, but there are a lot of risks along the way. Here’s why taking the Lakers offer is the best option for New Orleans.
The Los Angeles Lakers are on a time crunch to land Anthony Davis before the NBA trade deadline on Feb. 7. After swinging and missing on Paul George and then Kawhi Leonard, the Lakers are desperate to find another star to pair with LeBron James and compete right now, before other teams can enter the bidding.
Problem is, nobody else is feeing that same pressure. The Pelicans can sit tight, knowing they can hold out for a full year if they wish to move Davis— he has a year left on his deal after all, and time is their greatest leverage point.
That’s why it’s little surprise that, according to Zach Lowe and Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, the Pelicans took their time returning the Lakers’ trade calls on Davis, ignoring them at first before finally connecting Thursday afternoon.
According to Lowe and Wojnarowski, the Pelicans werereturning other team’s phone calls far sooner. That suggests that New Orleans was fed up with supposed tampering from Magic Johnson, Rob Pelinka and the rest of the Lakers’ front office, and that it didn’t want to equip that brass — including LeBron James— with the talent the franchise has sought for half a year.
Though reasonable, that spite could really backfire on New Orleans.
To fully comprehend what’s going on here, it’s important to lay out every trade scenario as we know it today. And as of Jan. 31, it appears that three teams are at the forefront of landing Davis’s talent: Boston, Los Angeles and New York (which took a slide after dealing its best asset, Kristaps Porzingis.) And while all three can,in theory, offer competitive packages for the five-time All-Star, and MVP candidate, there are obstacles in the way for New Orleans to get what it seeks from all of them.
Let’s start with Boston.
The Celtics undeniably have the most to offer New Orleans, but their efforts to land Davis are on momentary hold until July. (Boston can’t trade for Davis until Kyrie Irving opts out his contract due to a bizarre loophole, which is topic for another day, but detailed in here.) The Celtics have the most polished prospects and biggest stack of picks to shell out for a star. It seems obvious for New Orleans to just hold Davis out for the rest of the 18-19 season, and wait to deal him to Boston for the big haul.
But it isn’t that simple. Follow me down the road of buts and ifs:
- Davis’s vision is to play in a Lakers uniform, not with the Celtics, according to Lowe and Woj. If that sentiment is made clear to Boston, GM Danny Ainge may back out entirely from the deal come July or soften his offer. At that point, Davis could become a one-year rental and his value would lower.
- Davis’s long-term commitment may hinge on Kyrie Irving’s, and while the point guard stated before the season that he’d re-sign in Boston, there’s some uncertainty on that end to date. Even if it’s all smoke, it’s a potential obstacle for New Orleans.
- Should all that clear and Davis is open to playing in Boston with Irving, who knows what kind of return the Pels could actually be looking at. Jayson Tatum is one of, if not the best, young prospect New Orleans could get back in a Davis trade, but will Ainge actually part with him?
- A secondary part of any AD trade for Boston would include Jaylen Brown, who is a solid starter, but ultimately a consolation for missing Tatum. After Brown is where things get tricky. The Celtics’ best non-Tatum player asset is Terry Rozier, a good, borderline starting talent who would have to agree to a complex sign-and-trade to the Pels. He’s set to become a restricted free agent. Yet another obstacle.
- There’s also waiting on what draft picks will be on the table. Boston has four picks in the upcoming draft, which could end up in varying places. Their own pick should be low, their pick from the Clippers is lottery protected, their pick from Kings is likely to be late in the lottery, and their pick from Memphis is top-8 protected, and will largely depend on if the Grizzlies opt to tank. A trade for a future pick is always a gamble too. Nothing is certain.
So what about New York?
The Knicks have quietly put together an admirable core of promising talent in Kevin Knox, Frank Ntilikina, Mitchell Robinson, Dennis Smith Jr. and heck, even undrafted Allonzo Trier. They also possess what may be the mother of all, a first-round pick that could be No. 1 and into Zion Williamson, one of the most promising draft talents of the decade.
So what’s the holdup here?
- The Knicks no longer have Porzingis, who’d have made their offer truly competitive. Do the rest of their assets stack up? Knox and Ntilikina have been up-and-down, and Smith’s had bright spot, but also has clear limitations as a playmaking point guard. Their first-round pick might be New York’s best asset.
- The Knicks have the worst record in the league this season, but that comes at a time where it doesn’t matter nearly as much as it once did in terms of the draft lottery. Starting in this year’s draft, the NBA’s worst three records will all get an equal 14 percent chance at the top pick, rather than the worst team having a 25 percent shot. If the Knicks’ pick becomes anything less than No. 1, it loses its infinite value on the spot. That isn’t a risk the Pelicans should take.
- [This story originally listed Porzingis as a major asset for New York, but he was traded eight minutes after the story published.]
That leaves us with the Lakers, and why Pelicans GM Dell Demps started negotiating with the enemy against his reported desires
A long road lies ahead if the Pelicans choose to spite the Lakers over a grudge and give L.A. the cold shoulder. Yes, AD’s agent, Rich Paul, going public with his trade demand was a slight punch to the face. But in the grand scheme, is a holdout to spite Davis’s agent and block a LeBron-led L.A. title-run worth it?
The pathway to a Knicks deal seems slim. A trade with the Celtics could return the greatest benefit, but the operative word is could. For it to happen, Anthony Davis has to say yes, Kyrie Irving has to say yes, Terry Rozier may have to say yes, and Danny Ainge likely has to part ways with Jayson Tatum. It’s ifs stacked on ifs.
The Lakers have shown their hand, though. They have four prospects of varying talent: Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma and Josh Hart. Ball and Ingram have All-Star ceilings if the pieces are put together, and the other two have proven to be quality role players. Landing three of them on top of any other draft picks could be the best — and most reliable — return for New Orleans, a small-market team that can’t afford to cough up their biggest deal in franchise history.
The Lakers, according to the L.A. Times’ Brad Turner, have already offered Ball, Ingram, Kuzma, Ivica Zubac and a No. 1 pick. That’s a huge pull, and we’re still a week out from the deadline. New Orleans can possibly use its leverage to get an even better deal from L.A. It has the ultimate power this second, up until next week’s deadline.
The Lakers also don’t want to whiff here. Waiting until the summer, when the Celtics are free to negotiate, is a terrifying alternative for Magic and Pelinka.
Pick up the phone, Pelicans, and go get what you want from L.A. It might be the best you can do, after all.