Here’s why Sam Darnold’s signed helmet costs more than Dan Marino’s at the Super Bowl

It’s all about rarity.

The NFL Shop at Super Bowl LIII has all the commemorative coasters, lanyards, and shirts you’d expect — plus an array of signed memorabilia. What caught my eye wasn’t helmets signed by Tom Brady or Jared Goff, but the one with Sam Darnold’s autograph. More specifically, I found myself wondering why Darnold’s signed helmet cost so much money.

Darnold’s helmet, coming in at $485, was more expensive than Russell Wilson ($475), Dan Marino ($450) and Steve Young ($370). It defied common sense. Here you have two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, and one of the best currently playing the game — and yet Darnold, weeks removed from the end of his rookie season, topped them all.

“It’s like stocks,” says Paul Kutch of Hunt Auctions, who are running signed memorabilia sales at the Super Bowl, “everything is about supply and demand.”

Kutch told me that since entering the league as a rookie Darnold has only held one private signing, and not done any trade shows. As such his signature is sought after on the market. “[Sam] Darnold hasn’t done much signing, same with Saquon Barkley,” he says, “in a few years when he’s done 20-to-30 shows the prices will fall.”

The autograph game is like commodity trading, but those commodities aren’t all created equal — at least in the eyes of a fan. To most of us there’s infinitely more intrinsic value in having a piece of merchandise signed by Jim Kelly than Sam Darnold, but that isn’t the case in the memorabilia world. It’s all about rarity, and even something as simple as pen color can mean everything.

“Why is this football more?” A woman asks, looking at a series of autographed Julio Jones footballs. Without missing a beat Kutch responds, “That top one is signed in silver, and Julio Jones doesn’t sign in silver often.”

The biggest seller this week in the memorabilia world is Patriots merchandise, with fans and collectors flocking to grab available items, and staring wistfully at a signed Tom Brady jersey carrying a $1,900 price tag.

“Did you see the Brady jersey over there?” A man in his mid-50s tells his wife, both of them decked out in Patriots gear, “Not now, but one day” he says hopefully.