Last year, the last spot in the AFC came down to one play. The stage is set for a dramatic finish to the season again in 2018.
The Chiefs and Chargers are the only two teams in the AFC that are guaranteed to be playing in January. The Patriots and Texans will probably lock up their divisions soon, though.
That leaves just two spots truly still up in the air: The AFC North title and the second AFC Wild Card berth.
The Steelers and Ravens will drag race to the finish for the AFC North, and the loser of that battle will hope to beat out the Colts, Titans, and Dolphins, who are still alive for the last spot.
It may not be as messy as the NFC Wild Card race, but the No. 6 spot in the AFC is even more competitive. So which of these six teams it going to be?
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5-1): 16 percent chance
Last two games:Saints (road), Bengals (home)
OK, let’s get the math part out of the way first, because if you scrolled down at all, you might be thinking, “Uh ... that doesn’t add up to 100 percent, pal.” I realize that.
Either the Steelers or the Ravens will win the AFC North, so only one of them will actually wind up in the wild card race. Whoever loses the duel for the division will probably do so because they slipped up in the last two weeks. And because it doesn’t look likely that both the Titans and Colts will blow it, the team that finishes second in the AFC North doesn’t have the best shot at the wild card.
Hence, the low percentages and the extra 16 percent when you add all the numbers up.
Now that that’s out of the way, the Steelers would really prefer to not need the wild card. A home game against the Bengals is a comfortable finish to the year, and Pittsburgh can even clinch in Week 16 with a win and a Ravens loss.
That’s possible too with the Ravens finishing with a tough pair of opponents. Beating the Saints in New Orleans is a tall order for the Steelers, though.
Baltimore Ravens (9-6): 16 percent chance
Last two games: Chargers (road), Browns (home)
Baltimore’s Week 6 win against the Titans could come in handy, but the more immediate issue for the Ravens is getting through the Chargers and Browns.
They passed their test against the Chargers. The Ravens went to Los Angeles and absolutely bludgeoned the Chargers’ offense on their way to a 22-10 victory.
The Ravens are on a bit of a roll too. Beating the Chargers wasn’t a daunting slate for rookie Lamar Jackson, who’s been destroying teams with his legs.
It’s very possible — if not, probable — that the Ravens need to win both of those games to get into the playoffs.
Indianapolis Colts (8-6): 42 percent chance
Last two games: Giants (home), Titans (road)
The Colts are one of the hottest teams in the NFL with seven wins in their last eight games — including victories over the Texans and Cowboys, two likely playoff teams, in the back-to-back weeks.
The Giants are 4-2 since November started, so that’s not exactly a gimme in Week 16. But if the Colts get through that, they could be playing for a spot in the postseason in Week 17 against the Titans, who they already destroyed 38-10 last month.
The concern for the Colts is that they lose just about all the tiebreakers. The Ravens’ 6-4 conference record is ahead of Indianapolis’ 6-5 mark in AFC play. And a loss to the Titans in Week 17 would mean Tennessee has the better record in the AFC South.
Indianapolis has to win in Week 17, and almost definitely can’t afford to lose in Week 16 either. That’s a lot of pressure, but the Colts have shown lately that they’re up to the task.
Tennessee Titans (9-6): 37 percent chance
Last two games: Washington (home), Colts (home)
The 21-0 loss to the Ravens earlier in the year means the Titans are eliminated if they lose the Week 17 finale against the Colts — regardless of their Week 16 result. So no matter who wins the AFC South battle in Week 17, the loser is out of the playoffs.
The Titans managed to get by Washington in Week 16, a team led by quarterback Josh Johnson. With the win, the Titans’ playoff chances will probably come down to whether or not they can avenge their previous loss to the Colts.
Marcus Mariota injured his elbow and left in the first half of that Week 11 loss — and he suffered another injury in Week 16 — but the bigger issue against the Colts was that the Titans defense couldn’t do anything. Andrew Luck finished with 297 passing yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 143.8 passer rating. The trio of Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins, and Nyheim Hines combined for 105 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
If the Colts offense rolls again, the Titans’ season will end in Week 17.
Miami Dolphins (7-7): 5 percent chance
Last two games:Jaguars (home), Bills (road)
If the Dolphins improve to 9-7 with two wins to close out the year, they’ll have a good shot. Those are winnable games too, against Jacksonville and Buffalo.
There are few problems for Miami, though.
- They’re not very good. The Dolphins are No. 29 in total offense and No. 30 in total defense. The Jaguars and Bills are likely on their way to top-10 draft picks, but both could easily give Miami problems.
- Two wins might not matter. Even ignoring tiebreakers, any of the teams ahead of the Dolphins can climb out of reach by getting two wins of their own to get to 10-6. The Steelers just need one win to secure a record no worse than 9-6-1, which the Dolphins also couldn’t catch. There’s a chance 9-7 won’t cut it.
- A loss to the Colts could prove costly. Miami did itself a huge favor by beating the Titans in the season opener, but losing to the Colts in Week 12 wasn’t great. The good news is that the Dolphins are 6-4 in conference play, so they have the tiebreaker on any team other than Indianapolis. A jumbled mess of 9-7 teams would also be a favorable scenario for the Dolphins.
It’s definitely not over. Miami could even win the AFC East if it wins out and the Patriots lose out. That’s a long shot, and the Dolphins’ likelier scenario is the wild card. They need things to go just right, though.
Eliminated: Cleveland Browns
Last two games: Bengals (home), Ravens (road)
Sorry Browns, it’s just not going to happen. They needed Tennessee to lose to Washington on Saturday, but the Titans managed to win, sinking Cleveland’s playoff hopes.
To have a chance, the Browns would have needed the following results:
- Washington beats the Titans (Week 16) (Nope).
- Chargers beat the Ravens (Week 16)
- Giants beat the Colts (Week 16)
- Browns beat the Bengals (Week 16)
- Dolphins lose to Jaguars or Bills (Weeks 16/17)
- Browns beat the Ravens (Week 17)
- Titans and Colts tie (Week 17)
That’s right, the cherry on top of that perfect scenario was a tie between the Colts and Titans in Week 17. In this hypothetical, both Indianapolis and Tennessee will be battling for a final spot in the playoffs, but somehow play too conservatively to break a tie in overtime. It was a scenario that was never happening.
If anything, giving the Browns a one-in-100,000 chance at making the playoffs might’ve be generous. But hey, they were alive until Week 16. That’s a welcomed change after a winless season last year.
The race for the final spot in the AFC is close enough that no team can clinch it in Week 16 even if everything goes just right for them. It’ll come down to the last day of the regular season, regardless.
Last year, that final spot in the AFC came all the way down to one play. Andy Dalton and Tyler Boyd connected on a last-minute, 49-yard touchdown to secure a 22-16 win over the Ravens. That booted Baltimore from the AFC bracket, and let the Bills sneak in.
If we’re lucky, the conference is set up for some similar drama this time around too.