Which bottom-tier NFL team do you believe in most?

The 49ers? Jags? Jets? Raiders, even with Jon Gruden?

Let’s talk about the NFL’s bottom tier. The teams with four wins or fewer in 15 weeks. The franchises that have been mostly unwatchable in 2018.

That descriptor fits five teams this season: the Cardinals, Jets, Jaguars, 49ers, and Raiders.

The Raiders, Jets, and Cardinals, for better or worse, are trending toward a top-five pick in the 2019 NFL Draft by design. This season’s prolonged series of defeats was just the next step in rebuilds meant to replenish talent-starved rosters with premium young talent. For the Jaguars and 49ers, this season’s long line of losses have killed off the momentum of promising finishes the year before.

But no matter how the season began, it’s ending the same way for these five clubs — with the 2018 season scuttled and offering nothing but a salvage mission. Which foundering ship is the easiest to save?

Jacksonville offers a top-six defense that proved it could push Blake Bortles within 15 minutes of a Super Bowl just a year ago. San Francisco will hope Jimmy Garoppolo fulfills his destiny as the team’s $137.5 million quarterback. New York has Sam Darnold, Jamal Adams, and a bunch of young, intriguing talent. Arizona has a do-everything tailback in David Johnson and one of the league’s top pass rushers in Chandler Jones. Oakland has Jon Gruden’s unfireable contract and a buttload of future first round picks acquired in exchange for all his current talent.

So if you had to pick one to turn around and develop into an NFL powerhouse, which would you choose?

The case for the: San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have not one, but TWO backup quarterback gods on their current roster, which is a hell of a place to start. Jimmy Garoppolo proved himself as an above average starter in 2017 after taking a 1-10 San Francisco team and leading it to five straight wins to close out the season. His 2018 wasn’t as encouraging — he was only 1-2 as a starter and completing fewer than 60 percent of his passes when he tore his ACL — but it’s clear he’s the kind of passer around whom you can build a team.

But Nick Mullens, a September member of the practice squad in Santa Clara, is making a case that he too could be a reliable presence behind center. The former undrafted free agent has blown away expectations in a 3-3 run as the club’s starter, dashing the Broncos’ playoff hopes and making the Seahawks’ path to the postseason a little tougher. He’s a tremendous asset, not just as a guy who can produce as long as Garoppolo’s hurt, but also as a high-leverage trade chip with a dirt-cheap salary the next three seasons.

Whomever is starting for the Niners in Week 1 next fall will be surrounded by talent. Matt Breidahas established himself as an explosive, if inconsistent, tailback. George Kittle looks like an All-Pro tight end. DeForest Buckner is growing into his potential as a pass rusher and should have been a Pro Bowl honoree. Joe Staley remains a beacon of consistency, even if his quarterbacks keep getting hurt.

Factor in a useful general manager in John Lynch and a young but well traveled head coach in Kyle Shanahan, and you don’t have to squirt hard to see a San Francisco revival on the horizon. Lynch and Shanahan will have to pad out their roster with talent this spring — but with a top five pick coming and nearly $59 million in salary cap space to fill, that shouldn’t be too much of a problem. — Christian D’Andrea

The case for the: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars’ total collapse from Super Bowl contender back to the familiar comfort of the last-place spot in the AFC South has been fast, fierce, and ... really not all that unexpected. When should anyone believe in anything from Florida?

It’s easy to lay the blame entirely at the feet of Blake Bortles, a quarterback earning $20 million this season for his 13:10 touchdown-to-interception ration and who was benched for — and will continue to be benched for— Cody Kessler. Under Kessler, the Jacksonville offense has somehow been more lifeless, scoring ONE offensive touchdown in the entire month of December.

And quarterback play is largely to blame for the Jaguars’ regression, but it’s not the only reason they’re staring down a top-five pick. After all, they had a top-six offense in scoring and yards in 2017 — with Bortles (that is, amazingly, true). There’s also a defense that, while still one of the best in the league, hasn’t been able to match his aggression from last year, as evidenced by its drop in sacks and takeaways.

There’s the banged-up offensive line, the lack of a true No. 1 receiver, and a running game that has gone stagnant. There’s The Good Place.

And yet, they’re not completely hopeless, especially on defense:

Keep the defense more or less intact, let Jalen Ramsey draft their next quarterback, and get a couple of more weapons on offense. Then perhaps we can start yelling “Jacksonville Jaguars rule!” unironically again. Well, mostly unironically. They are still the Jaguars. — Sarah Hardy

The case for the: Oakland Raiders

It’s hard to fully have faith that Jon Gruden will be able to turn around the future Las Vegas Raiders, but the Raiders have so many assets that it’s also hard to not be intrigued by their future.

As it currently stands, the Raiders have five first-round picks over the next two years and a projected $80 million in cap space for the 2019 season. That’s enough room to find a new quarterback (if they choose to), rebuild the defense, and sign a big free agent or two without breaking their cap space.

The biggest question with the Raiders is what to do with Derek Carr in the future. He’s given a mixed bag with his play this season, but the Raiders offense hasn’t been bad with him at the helm. According to Bill Connelly’s numbers, they’ve actually been pretty good!

If Carr can take another step in 2019 in Jon Gruden’s offense, then the Raiders might be back to being a playoff caliber team rather quickly — unless they completely whiff on defensive investments over the next few years.

The 2018 season was bleak for the Raiders, but they have the assets in the very near future to potentially get this thing turned around. — Charles McDonald

Which team would you pick?