The Bears are in!
Most of us probably didn’t see this coming in September. After Week 3, the Chargers, Cowboys, and Seahawks were all 1-2. The Bears were 2-1, albeit coming off just a two-point win over the Cardinals. The Texans were 0-3.
Fast forward three months and all of them had a chance to earn a playoff berth in Week 15.
The Chargers got it done in a yet another thrilling comeback in primetime, ending their nine-game losing streak against the Chiefs and preventing their rivals from locking down the division (at least for this week).
Now the Chiefs and Chargers are both 11-3 and fighting for not just the division title, but the top seed in the AFC. Buckle up, folks. It’s the law. And also, the last few weeks of the season should be gooooood.
The Chargers’ last-second win (more accurately, last four seconds) sent the final Thursday night game of the season in style. It was not the final Thursday Night Football game, however. The TNF brand will be co-opted for this week’s and next week’s Saturday games.
On Saturday, the Texans helped their playoff cause when they held off the Jets 29-22. The Jets didn’t make it easy on the Texans, taking their first lead of the game with five minutes left to play. Then Deshaun Watson and the Houston offense answered, culminating with an incredible DeAndre Hopkins touchdown catch.
After that, the Browns kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a one-point win over the Broncos. It wasn’t quite revenge for The Drive and The Fumble, but it all but officially knocked the Broncos out of playoff contention.
Los Angeles entered Sunday as home to half of the NFL’s playoff teams, but that percentage has already dropped with the Bears clinching. The Cowboys missed their chance this week, but three more teams can join the Rams, Chargers, Chiefs, Bears, and Saints on Sunday.
On the other hand, the dream can end for more teams this weekend. The 49ers, Cardinals, Raiders, Bills Jets, and Jaguars were already there. Now you can add the Broncos, Giants, Packers, Lions, Bucs, and Falcons to the list.
Here’s what’s at stake in Week 15.
Which teams can clinch a playoff spot in Week 15?
The Bears, Cowboys, Seahawks, and Texans were less expected to be in this position. The Patriots weren’t supposed to here this week, either — as in, they were expected to sew up the AFC East, for the 10th straight year, last week. Then the Miracle in Miami happened.
Meanwhile in the NFC, the top two seeds, and the first-round byes that come with it, could be decided this week.
How did the Bears clinch the NFC North this week?
The Bears could’ve either gone big (win their division) or go medium (earn a playoff spot). They chose the former, with their first win over the Packers at Soldier Field since 2010. That, not coincidentally, is the last time they won the division. Thanks, Jon Gruden!
The Bears just needed one of the following to occur to become NFC North champs for the first time in eight years:
- Get some payback for their Week 1 loss to a one-legged Aaron Rodgers and beat the Packers OR
- For the Vikings (familiar enough with miraculous wins) to lose to the Dolphins, who are coming off one of their own, OR
- For Bears-Packers and Vikings-Dolphins to both end in a tie (which would give us, tongue twister incoming, TWO two-tie teams in 2018).
The Bears didn’t end up needing any help after they beat the Packers 24-17.
How could the Cowboys have clinched a playoff spot this week?
The Cowboys looked all but in the playoffs, and then they were shut out by the Colts. The Cowboys are still the favorites to win the division (thanks, Jon Gruden!), even if they missed their chance to clinch this week.
It was either NFC East or bust this week for Dallas, who needed:
- A win on the road against the Colts OR
- A tie with the Colts, an Eagles loss or tie with the Rams, and a Washington loss or tie with the Jaguars OR
- An Eagles loss to the Rams and a Washington loss to the Jaguars.
They got blown out 23-0 to the Colts, while the Josh Johnson-led Washington sneaked by the Jaguars.
How can the Seahawks clinch a playoff spot this week?
The Rams have already won the NFC West, but the Seahawks are in firm control of the No. 5 seed. Since no one else wants the other wild card spot, it’s just a matter of when the Seahawks secure the first one. That could come Sunday.
The 1 likely and 3 improbable ways the Seahawks can lock up a wild card spot:
- The Seahawks beat the 49ers, a team they crushed 43-16 two weeks prior OR
- The Seahawks and 49ers tie, the Vikings lose to the Dolphins, and the Panthers lose to or tie the Saints OR
- The Seahawks and 49ers tie, the Vikings lose to the Dolphins, the Eagles lose to or tie the Rams, and Washington loses to or ties the Jaguars OR
- The Seahawks and 49ers tie, the Panthers lose to or tie the Saints, the Eagles lose to or tie the Rams, and Washington loses to or ties the Jaguars.
But this is real question: Will Russell Wilson throw a shoe this time?
How can the Texans clinch a playoff spot this week?
It’s not win and they’re in this week for the Texans. It’s win and a couple others things going their way.
The Texans already beat the Jets, so they could’ve won the AFC South if this happened:
Neither did, so the Texans have to to wait for another chance at division title. However, they can still clinch a playoff berth.
After their win over the Jets, the Texans can nab a playoff berth if this happens:
- The Dolphins lose to or tie the Vikings, and the Steelers lose to the Patriots OR
Miami lost, so now the Texans wait on Steelers-Patriots.
How can the Patriots clinch a playoff spot this week?
The Patriots were human last week; it was beautiful, even if it was fleeting. This week, we could be back to reality.
It might take another miracle to keep the AFC East title out of the Patriots’ hands again. They just need one of these outcomes:
- The Patriots beat the Steelers like always and the Dolphins lose to or tie the Vikings OR
- The Patriots and Steelers tie, and the Dolphins lose to the Vikings.
The Dolphins’ 41-17 loss to the Vikings helped the Patriots with one part of that equation.
How could the Rams have clinched a first-round bye?
The Rams had a chance to grab one of the first-round byes last week, but then they seemed to have no interest in playing on a cold night in Chicago. So they got another shot this week, but their chance ended before they even played on Sunday Night Football.
The Rams needed two things to happen:
- They beat the Eagles and the Bears lose to or tie the Packers OR
- They tie the Eagles and the Bears lose to the Packers.
But the Bears’ win impeded their ability to clinch a bye this week.
How could the Saints have clinched a first-round bye?
A week after winning their second straight NFC South title, the Saints could’ve crossed another item off their to-do list. But just like the Rams, the Saints found out before their Monday Night Football game that they won’t be able to clinch a bye this week.
The Saints could’ve skipped all the way to the Divisional Round if:
- They beat the Panthers and the Bears lose to or tie the Packers OR
- They tie the Panthers and the Bears lose to the Packers.
The Bears rained on their parade, too.
Enough with the ties! Which teams can be eliminated this week with simple wins and losses?
There are many complicated scenarios in which teams can be eliminated with ties, but the NFL seems to be over its early-season tie fetish. We could also get into the weeds with one team clinching strength of victory over another. But for the sake of our sanity, let’s keep it simple. If it fits into a Joe Ferreira tweet, then it’s all you probably need to know.
(If you’ve got a little more time on your hands and want to delve into the nitty-gritty, NFL Playoff Scenarios on Reddit exhaustively breaks down the AFC and NFC pictures.)
The Browns’ dream of making the playoffs remains alive (!) after their win over the Broncos. If they had lost, they would’ve been knocked out.
The Broncos lost to the Browns, and they are now eliminated because:
- The Titans beat the Giants.
The Bengals beat the Raiders, but they will be officially out of playoff contention if:
- The Steelers beat the Patriots, because the Titans and Colts both won too.
The Giants needed more than just a loss to be knocked out this week. Unfortunately for them, they lost to the Titans AND
- Washington beats the Jaguars.
The Packers are toast (probably covered in cheese) because:
- They lost to the Bears and the Vikings beat the Dolphins.
It was a similar situation for the Lions, who are out because:
- They lost to the Bills and the Vikings beat the Dolphins.
And oh hey, same thing for the Bucs, who are done because:
- They lost to the Ravens and the Vikings beat the Dolphins.
The Falcons, who got a win over the Cardinals, still completed their run as one of the most disappointing teams this season because:
- The Vikings beat the Dolphins OR
The Vikings finally found life on offense after firing OC John DeFilippo. In the process, they ruined a few teams’ playoff chances.
If the playoffs started today, which teams would be in?
Here’s a look at the current standings, which are finally starting to settle a bit other than those apparently cootie-infested No. 6 seeds. We’ll continue to update this weekend, so be sure to check back.
The NFC:
- New Orleans Saints (11-2)**
- Los Angels Rams (11-2)**
- Chicago Bears (10-4)**
- Dallas Cowboys (8-6)
- Seattle Seahawks (8-5)
- Minnesota Vikings (7-6-1)
The AFC:
- Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)*
- Houston Texans (10-4)
- New England Patriots (9-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5-1)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-3)*
- Baltimore Ravens (8-6)
**clinched the division
*clinched a playoff berth